Archive for the 'Politics' Category



Brazil will win the World Cup 2010

Who will win the Football World Cup 2010? This is one of the most pressing questions today – even beyond the world of sports. This article offers a prognostic model that goes far beyond Franz Beckenbauers answer on the question: What is your prognosis for the game? “Yes good, there is only one possibility. Victory, Draw or defeat”. Statistical Analyses reveals that – against popular opinions – political and economic, religious and psychological factors are explanatory and that Brasil will defeat Germany in the Final.

Table 1: Prognosis of results (checked by schedule)

World Champion Brazil
Runner Up Germany
3rd France
4th Italy
Quarter Finals Netherlands, England, Spain, Argentina
Last 16 Portugal, Serbia,  South Africa, Greece, Cameroun, USA, Paraguay, Switzerland

Based on a complex model, a team of social scientists at the Institute of Political Science of the University Tuebingen, predicts that Brazil will defeat Germany in the Finals of the 2010 Football World Cup. The model takes into account football related variables (participation and success in previous world cups, FIFA rankings, UEFA Coefficients and others) as well as political and economic (GDP per capita, GINI-Coefficient, HDI, Freedom House Freedom in the World Index, number of registered players) and socio-geographic (ration of catholics, distance to London and Chichén Itza, Continent) variables. Factorial analysis, regressions and other statistical calculations reveal that there is a significant influence of non-football variables on success.

The whole study can be downloaded here (as it is in German, please ask me for more results in English)

Autoritäre Regime, Bürger Im Staat 1-2010

Out now: The new Buerger im Staat, volume 1-2010 was published this week. The volume on authoritarian regimes contains thirteen articles on Autocracies in the Postsoviet Space, the Caucasus, South East Asia and China, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. They include both, comparative perspectives and case studies and adress different aspects of persistence, change and functional logics of autocracies

Content:

  • Einleitung (Siegfried Frech)
  • Die „dunkle Seite“ der Macht: Stabilität und Wandel autoritärer Systeme (Holger Albrecht / Rolf Frankenberger)
  • Autoritäre Systeme in den Nachfolgestaaten der Sowjetunion (Petra Stykow)
  • Institutioneller Wandel in Russland – Die Konsolidierung der Autokratie (Rolf Frankenberger)
  • Regimebeständigkeit und „Revolution“: Armenien und Georgien im Vergleich (Christoph H. Stefes)
  • Die Finanzkrise in China: Auswirkungen auf die Legitimität der Parteiherrschaft (Heike Holbig)
  • Autoritäre Regime in Südostasien: Persistenz und Wandel von Militärregimen (Marco Bünte)
  • Autoritäre Regime im Vorderen Orient: Herrschaftssicherung trotz Herrscherwechsel (Maria Josua)
  • Das Familienunternehmen Ägypten (Thomas Demmelhuber)
  • Die Modernisierung des Autoritarismus in den arabischen Golfstaaten (Michael Schmidmayr)
  • Autoritäre Regime im Afrika (Jörg Kemmerzell)
  • Politische Apathie als Antwort auf die Krise in Simbabwe (Beatrice Schlee)
  • Autoritarismus und Demokratie in Lateinamerika (Peter Thiery)
  • Kuba – Im Herbst der Patriarchen (Franziska Stehnken)

Authoritarianism reloaded

From 11-14 June a workshop on authoritarian political systems will bring together scholars at the Conference Centre “Haus auf der Alb” of the Landeszentrale für Politische Bildung Baden-Württemberg to discuss their approaches to autocracies, dictatorships, authoritarian political systems. There will be a broad range of topics presented and discussed from conceptional and theoretical approaches  to more empirical case studies and comparative studies. Although working language will be German, the programme could be of interest.

In a first round, conceptional and theoretical approaches will be presented. Steffen Kailitz will give an overview on the state of the art of autocracy-research in Germany and beyond. A profound and critical assessment of strategies of conceptualization, regime typologies and the problem of the continuum of democracy and totalitarianism will be presented by Kevin Koehler and Jana Warkotsch. As a third conceptual approach,  Holger Albrecht and Rolf Frankenberger advocate the necessity of an analysis of authoritarian regimes without democracy-sunglasses and present a conceptualization inspired by system theory of  Talcott Parsons.

A second point will be the question of systems, structures and institutions. Thomas Demmelhuber will present an analysis of the “Gamal-clique” in Egypt to illustrate new mechanisms of power and rule. Christina Trittel investigates the role and functions of parliaments in authoritarian regimes using the example of the National Assembly of Belarus from 1996 to 2009.

The relationship between State, Society and Economy will be the focus of the third discussion round. Daniel Lambach and Christian Goebel, organizators of the previously discussed workshop on authoritarian consolidation, are presenting their analytical framework on responsiveness of authoriatrian regimes. Subsequently, Gert Pickel examines whether or not authoritarian regimes are in need of (specific and diffuse) support as a core aspect of state-society-relations. picking up this perspective, Susanne Pickel and Toralf Stark explore and compare political cultures of authoritarian regimes on the basis of quantitative empirical data.

Change and reform will be at the core of the fourth session. Michael Schmidmayr discusses the directions and reasons of reform processes in the arab gulf states, Christian Timm is investigating the functional logics of post-transformatory regimes after transitions from neopartimonial rule, and Marco Buente will give an overview on authoritarian regimes in East Asia

In the last session, stability and reproduction of authoritarian rule will be in the focus of discussion. Petra Stykow will open the the las session on stability and reproduction of authoritarian rule with an anaylsis of mechanisms of reproduction of non-democratic regimes in the postsowjet space. Christoph Stefes and Jenniver Sehring choose a comparative perspective on stability of competitive authoritarian regimes in Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Last not Least, Beatrice Schlee will investigate mechanisms of survival in times of crisis in Zimbabwe.

A discussion of perspectives of research on authoritarianism will close the workshop on late saturday. A brief summary of papers and main results of discussions will be published here betimes.

2009 Conferences in Social Sciences – some links and resources

In 2009 there will be a lot of conferences, workshops and meetings in the social sciences on diverse issues. Thus it could be helpful for scholars to sum up some of the main sources to find out what is going on in the fields of political science, sociology, and psychology. remember that this is neither a full list of all meetings, conferences and workshops nor one of all associations and societies in these fields. But still, the main events might be covered at a glance. The first link refers to the association, the second one on the conferences site:

Political Science:

Sociology

Political Psychology

Psychology

Last but not least, my collegue Michael Arfken has collected a lot of links to Conferences and Meetings in the fields of Psychology and Political Science that are related to his research and teaching interests.

ISPP 2009 Conference – Call for Papers

We are interested in organizing several panels for the ISPP 2009 Conference in Dublin, Ireland and would like to encourage any scholars interested in the following topics to submit an abstract by December 15, 2008. If you need any additional information, please don’t hesitate to contact either of the panel organizers.

Section 6: Political Culture, Identity, and Language

Processes of change often referred to as globalization have a significant impact on the everyday experiences of individuals throughout the world. To the extent that these experiences contribute to particular individual and collective identities, we may be witnessing an unparalleled transformation in the fabric of political culture. While much research within political science and
psychology has focused on attitudes, value orientations, and political preferences, there has been relatively little research on the way globalization gives rise to unique political subjects and cultures.

The purpose of this panel is to bring together scholars interested in discussing theoretical and empirical innovations at the intersection of globalization, political culture, and subjectivity.

If you are interested in participating in this panel, please submit an abstract of no more than 250 words to the panel organizer:

Dr. Rolf Frankenberger
University of Tübingen
Institute for Political Science
rolf.frankenberger@uni-tuebingen.de

Section 10: New Theoretical and Methodological Developments

The idea of the subject has played a crucial role in politics and psychology. While other disciplines may explore the historical circumstances that give rise to modern political institutions or the economic conditions that favor one form of government over another, the concept of the subject enables political scientists and psychologists alike to focus on the psychological processes that contribute to specific interpretations of social/political reality.

Yet within political psychology, the very idea of the subject rarely undergoes significant scrutiny. This is particularly troubling as various conceptions of the subject may inadvertently support specific political institutions rather than serve as a point of departure for interrogating the dominant features of modern society.

The purpose of this panel is to bring together scholars interested in discussing the role that subjectivity plays in political psychological theorizing. In particular, we encourage proposals that draw attention to the concept of intersubjectivity.

If you are interested in participating in this panel, please submit an abstract of no more than 250 words to the panel organizer:

Dr. Michael Arfken
University of Prince Edward Island
Department of Psychology
marfken@upei.ca

2009 International Society of Political Psychology Conference
Dublin, Ireland
July 14-17, 2009


Panel Submission Due: December 15, 2008


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