Who will win the Football World Cup 2010? This is one of the most pressing questions today – even beyond the world of sports. This article offers a prognostic model that goes far beyond Franz Beckenbauers answer on the question: What is your prognosis for the game? “Yes good, there is only one possibility. Victory, Draw or defeat”. Statistical Analyses reveals that – against popular opinions – political and economic, religious and psychological factors are explanatory and that Brasil will defeat Germany in the Final.
Table 1: Prognosis of results (checked by schedule)
| World Champion | Brazil |
| Runner Up | Germany |
| 3rd | France |
| 4th | Italy |
| Quarter Finals | Netherlands, England, Spain, Argentina |
| Last 16 | Portugal, Serbia, South Africa, Greece, Cameroun, USA, Paraguay, Switzerland |
Based on a complex model, a team of social scientists at the Institute of Political Science of the University Tuebingen, predicts that Brazil will defeat Germany in the Finals of the 2010 Football World Cup. The model takes into account football related variables (participation and success in previous world cups, FIFA rankings, UEFA Coefficients and others) as well as political and economic (GDP per capita, GINI-Coefficient, HDI, Freedom House Freedom in the World Index, number of registered players) and socio-geographic (ration of catholics, distance to London and Chichén Itza, Continent) variables. Factorial analysis, regressions and other statistical calculations reveal that there is a significant influence of non-football variables on success.